CPI CHF: While the European Central Bank considers its next interest rate move, the Swiss National Bank must also decide how much to raise interest rates in December. But Switzerland is not suffering from high inflation like the rest of Europe, as its consumer price index in October was just 3% year-on-year. It also does not face the same risk of recession as Europe and recorded a growth of 0.3% in the second quarter. The Swiss franc has rallied on a weaker dollar, but higher-than-expected CPI figures may be what prompts the Swiss central bank to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, which could weaken the Swiss franc.
Core PCE Price Index USD: After the consumer price index fell in November, investors will be watching on Thursday to see if the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation (PCE) also eases significantly. It is expected that it will decrease to 0.3% compared to the 0.5% rate of the previous month. If the real rate is lower, it indicates that inflation has reached its peak and this can improve risk-taking in the market to some extent, and this will have a negative impact on the dollar as a safe asset.
Unemployment Claims USD: The index measures the average of the last four releases of initial jobless claims released each Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor as a measure of the number of people who applied for state unemployment insurance for the first time, and a measure It offers power in the labor market. Forecasts show the increase of this index compared to the previous rate. Considering that there are signs of the end of inflation in America, if this index is higher than the forecasts, it will be a confirmation of the weakening of the inflation and will lead to the weakness of the dollar.
ISM Manufacturing PMI USD: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector, taking into account expectations for future production, new orders, inventories, employment and deliveries. This is a significant indicator of the overall economic situation in the United States. The ISM manufacturing employment index reflects business sentiment regarding labor market conditions and is considered a strong indicator of non-farm payrolls. Expectations indicate that this index will drop below 50. If it is less than 50 and forecasts, it can be a sign of the end of the contractionary policy and strengthen risk-taking in the market.
